LCFIT: The Lee-Carter Fitter

This is the home page of LCFIT, a web-based computer program that allows users to create mortality models and forecasts based on the "Lee-Carter model" using an intuitive form-based approach. This model of historic mortality change, along with associated forecasting techniques, was introduced by Ronald D. Lee and Lawrence Carter in 1992 with the article "Modeling and Forecasting the Time Series of U.S. Mortality," (Journal of the American Statistical Association 87 (September): 659-671). See this article in the North American Actuarial Journal for a more contemporary overview, or some of the papers on Prof. Lee's website for extensions and applications.

Please register to use LCFIT by clicking the link below. Once you receive a username and password, visit the Trac wiki to look at the documentation. Then start experimenting with your own mortality rates of interest. There are links to mortality rates datasets that are ready to enter into LCFIT at the bottom of this page. If you have any questions please email lcfit@demog.berkeley.edu.

This work was done by researchers at CEDA, under the supervision of Prof. Ronald Lee.


Register here.

Login here.

Brief Instructions here.

Longer Instructions here. Must be registered to view.

PAA 2007 submission on LCFIT (formerly "LAR-E") here.

PAA 2007 poster on LCFIT here.

Documentation, Wiki, and Tickets, Code browser, etc (Trac) here. Must be registered to view.

Email the administrator at lcfit@demog.berkeley.edu.

Not simsoc, lcfit: here


Warnings and Caveats

This software in development and is without warranty: use the results at your own risk. Please send errors to the address email above, with as much contextual information as possible. Finally, please note that sometimes you may experience unexpected errors while processing data, due to the fact that this software is being developed "live"; if you do get an unexpected stack-trace, try again in a few minutes.


Acknowledgements

Development of the extensions of the Lee-Carter method and development of this web-based software was supported by a grant from the National Institute of Aging R03-AG024314.


Some sample data

Assembled low mortality country age-specific POPULATION.

Assembled low mortality country age-specifice MORTALITY RATES.

Sweden f, m, c (1950-2002, ages 0 ... 110+, ready to enter to LC Two-Sex).

Sweden Simple (1950-2002, ages 0 ... 110+, ready to enter to LC).

Sweden Mortality and Population (1950-2002, ages 0 ... 110+, ready to enter to LC Coherent).

All country data from Nan Li: "px"for population counts, "mx" for mortality rates.

2-sex population and mortality for Sweden


Links

Department of Demography

Human Mortality Database

CEDA

Author of alternative LC library in R


Code and backups

SVN dump.

LCFIT export. Use this for installing a local version of LCFIT.